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What are "THE ODDS" ?

Please help thinking, those of you experienced in going to the Khumbu/Sagarmatha Parc. It's about Gareth.
WHAT ARE THE ODDS, if any, that the SAME foreign trekkers who were in Nepal (Kathmandu -> Lukla -> Namche -> upwards, and back again) between end of February and the course of March '04,
WILL GO BACK THERE sometime that period in 2005? Or will at least go back to Nepal next Spring?

1.
Is the majority of who WERE there then, a matter of occasional Khumbu-trekkers, who will not return a year later?
2.
Will a reasonable number of them RETURN more or less exactly a year later?
3.
What is YOUR estimate of the chances that trekkers who WERE there in '04 and who may have seen or met with Gareth Koch either before the morning of Monday, March 8 or later, HAVE NO IDEA YET of the fact he went MISSING?
4.
Are there any estimates as to the NATIONALITY of those who are most likely to re-visit the area again, almost exactly a year later?


Just thinking aloud. And considering that I read so many stories everywhere of Nepal-enthusiasts who really seem to go back there once a year. Some even twice.

And wondering if there would be any LOGIC in assuming you'll have a PART of your original Febr/March '04-public back there in Febr/March '05.
For if that expectation would be realistic, it MIGHT make sense to prepare another campaign to focus on his disappearance, this time f.e. including putting up searchposters with several pictures of him, calling specifically for attention of 2004- trekkers and STARTING in the arrivals-hall of the Kathmandu Airport (or whatever the situation is like there, in their buildings). And so on.

Please don't hit me. I think by fár not enough trekkers (who were out there back then) are made aware of this "case" yet. Looking back on the actions that have been undertaken to find people who could tell about him and find clues, it seems many people haven't exactly "sat back". But the efforts haven't been enough. Can 2005 mean a new chance on reaching new "eye witnesses": people who can report having seen him, nót only but especially on or after March 8?

He can't just have "disappeared" on that morning. It doesn't make sense. Not when all he intended was walking from Chukhung to Dingboche. It wasn't crowded there, but if there were other trekkers they must have seen him after 9:00 a.m. that morning. Question: are they aware he is missing, and will they recognise him from photos? And REPORT!

There are simply too many reportings meanwhile (in logs and travelboards, posted long after March) of people who say they saw the searchposters, and comment things like "he probably went in alone and got lost". It means they have no idea and never heard about the case in the previous months, and imo it means there must be a number of trekkers who did see Gareth, but DON'T KNOW he went missing.


==> daviko@ntlworld.com (email address of Gareth's father)

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K3vin wrote:

How many male British were granted visas for Nepal in March 2004?

Can the Carstens give more description of the British Trekker? Has he been traced already? His age, what was he wearing and carrying?

If there is visas required he can quickly be traced by a process of elimination. If they (The nepal administration) are willing to help.

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